Researchers think novel coronavirus will spread “no matter the climate conditions”
Researchers from the Princeton University Environmental Institute (PEI) in New Jersey, US, believe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is not greatly affected by local variations in climate. The rapid spread of the virus in tropical nations, such as Brazil and Australia, and others in the Southern Hemisphere further indicates that warmer conditions will do little to halt the deadly pandemic.
COVID-19’s response to warmer weather is not well known since it was discovered in late 2019 in China: so, the researchers ran simulations on how the pandemic would respond to various climates across the globe, based on the role seasonal variations have on the occurrence of similar viruses.
The researchers assumed the novel coronavirus would have the same climate sensitivity as influenza, following a prior model from laboratory studies that highlighted the importance of low humidity to promote spread. The virus was also given the same climate dependence and length of immunity as human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1, which are two causes of the common cold. At the end, climate was noted to only become a mitigating factor when large portions of the human population were immune or resistant to the novel coronavirus.
“It doesn’t seem that climate is regulating spread right now,” said PEI postdoctoral research associate Rachel Baker. “We do not yet directly know how temperature and humidity influence the virus’ transmission, but we think it is unlikely that these factors could completely halt transmission based on what we see among other viruses.”
(According to other professors and associated faculty at PEI, the experience with other viruses suggests that, without a vaccine or other treatment measures, COVID-19 could only become responsive to seasonal changes once the supply of unexposed hosts is reduced.)
“We do see some influence of climate on the size and timing of the pandemic, but, because there’s so much susceptibility in the population, the virus will spread quickly no matter the climate conditions,” Baker admitted.
PEI’s Bryan Grenfell revealed that the pandemic’s trajectory over the next several months will likely be influenced by “human-induced factors” such as non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce contact; and “fundamental biological uncertainties” such as the strength/duration of immunity following infection.
However, Grenfell added, “As knowledge of the immune response develops, we hope to be able to project the coronavirus’ interaction with seasonality more accurately.”
Meanwhile, PEI’s study also has broader implications for the integration of meteorological information into understanding disease outbreaks, purported Gabriel Vecchi, professor of geosciences at PEI.
“Weather is only one of many factors that can help provide information about the course of this disease – a deeper, interdisciplinary understanding of the interplay of multiple factors that impact disease evolution such as disease dynamics, weather and socioeconomic drivers, including mitigation measures undertaken by society – is needed.”
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